Kyren Williams, the Rams’ starting running back, is entering the final year of his rookie contract in 2025, making an extension a top priority for both the player and the franchise. As negotiations progress, determining a fair market value for Williams requires a comprehensive analysis of his on-field performance, statistical output, comparisons to peer running backs, and the evolving NFL running back market. All indications from McVay, Williams, and Les Snead point to good progress in contract negotiations. Let’s take a deep dive into what his new contract should be valued at, supported by detailed statistics, comparisons to other running backs, and insights into recent news surrounding his negotiations.
Sean McVay: Rams, RB Kyren Williams have made progress on potential contract extensionhttps://t.co/kuwW640r3R pic.twitter.com/F4P6RmudWS
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) June 17, 2025
Kyren Williams’ Performance and Statistical Profile
Kyren Williams, a fifth-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft out of Notre Dame, has emerged as one of the league’s most productive running backs despite entering the NFL with modest expectations. His combination of vision, physicality, and versatility has made him the cornerstone of the Rams’ rushing attack. Let’s break down his statistical contributions over his first three seasons:
• 2022 (Rookie Season): Williams appeared in 10 games, starting none, and rushed for 139 yards on 35 carries (4.0 yards per carry) with no touchdowns. His role was limited due to injuries and a crowded backfield, but he showed flashes of potential.
• 2023 (Breakout Season): Williams played in 12 games, starting 11, and exploded for 1,144 rushing yards on 228 carries (5.0 YPC) with 12 rushing touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 206 yards and 3 receiving touchdowns. His 260 total touches ranked among the league’s elite, and he earned a Pro Bowl nod.
• 2024 (Established Star): In 16 games, Williams rushed 316 times for 1,299 yards (4.1 YPC) and 14 touchdowns while adding 34 receptions for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns. His 350 total touches ranked third in the NFL behind Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson.
Career Totals (through 2024):
• Games: 38 (27 starts)
• Rushing: 579 carries, 2,582 yards, 26 touchdowns (4.5 YPC)
• Receiving: 79 receptions, 574 yards, 7 touchdowns
• Total Touches: 658
• Fumbles: 8 (a noted area for improvement)
Williams’ 2023 and 2024 seasons place him among the NFL’s top workhorse backs. His 82% snap share in 2023 and 87% in 2024 reflect the Rams’ reliance on him as their primary ball carrier. Additionally, his proven performance escalators have boosted his 2025 base salary to $5.346 million, a significant jump from his $985,000 salary in 2024, rewarding his high snap counts and production.
However, Williams’ efficiency metrics reveal some concerns. His 4.1 YPC in 2024 ranked 28th among running backs, trailing players like Breece Hall and Alvin Kamara (both 4.2 YPC). His eight fumbles over the past two seasons also raise questions about ball security, a critical factor for a high-volume back. Despite these drawbacks, Williams’ ability to handle a massive workload, score touchdowns (33 total in two seasons), and contribute in the passing game makes him a valuable asset.
The NFL Running Back Market: Trends and Context
The running back position has undergone a dramatic devaluation in the NFL over the past two decades, with teams prioritizing passing offenses and committee backfields. However, elite workhorse backs who can dominate touches and produce consistent yardage still command significant contracts, albeit below the top-tier markets for quarterbacks, wide receivers, or edge rushers. To gauge Williams’ value, we must examine recent contracts for running backs with similar profiles. With the Rams drafting in the Jarquez Hunter who averaged 6.25 career yards at Auburn, the Rams appear to moving towards reducing the workload for Williams.
Recent Running Back Contracts (2024-2025 Offseason)
Below is a snapshot of notable running back contracts signed in 2024, providing a benchmark for Williams’ potential extension:
• Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers): 2 years, $38 million ($19M APY), $24M guaranteed (2024 extension)
• Stats (2023): 272 carries, 1,459 yards, 14 TDs; 67 receptions, 564 yards, 7 TDs
• Age: 29 (at signing)
• Notes: McCaffrey is the gold standard for dual-threat backs, with elite efficiency (5.4 YPC) and receiving production.
• Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles): 3 years, $37.75 million ($12.58M APY), $26M guaranteed (2024)
• Stats (2023): 247 carries, 962 yards, 6 TDs; 41 receptions, 280 yards, 4 TDs
• Age: 27
• Notes: Barkley’s contract reflects his pedigree and versatility, though his 3.9 YPC in 2023 showed dependence on a poor Giants offensive line.
• Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis Colts): 3 years, $42 million ($14M APY), $26.5M guaranteed (2023)
• Stats (2023): 169 carries, 741 yards, 7 TDs; 19 receptions, 153 yards, 1 TD
• Age: 25
• Notes: Taylor’s deal came after a holdout and injury concerns, but his youth and explosiveness justified a high APY.
• Josh Jacobs (Green Bay Packers): 4 years, $48 million ($12M APY), $12.5M guaranteed (2024)
• Stats (2023): 233 carries, 805 yards, 6 TDs; 37 receptions, 296 yards, 0 TDs
• Age: 26
• Notes: Jacobs’ contract balances his proven durability with a lower guarantee, reflecting market caution.
• James Conner (Arizona Cardinals): 3 years, $25.5 million ($8.5M APY), $16M guaranteed (2024 extension)
• Stats (2023): 208 carries, 1,040 yards, 7 TDs; 27 receptions, 165 yards, 2 TDs
• Age: 29
• Notes: Conner’s deal is a value contract for a reliable but less explosive back.
• Chuba Hubbard (Carolina Panthers): 4 years, $33.4 million ($8.35M APY), $15M guaranteed (2024)
• Stats (2023): 238 carries, 902 yards, 5 TDs; 39 receptions, 233 yards, 0 TDs
• Age: 25
• Notes: Hubbard’s contract reflects the market for younger, high-volume backs with moderate efficiency.
Market Trends
• Top-Tier Contracts: Only McCaffrey and Barkley command APYs above $12.5 million, reserved for backs with exceptional efficiency, receiving ability, or star power.
• Mid-Tier Contracts: Players like Taylor, Jacobs, and Rhamondre Stevenson (4 years, $36M, $9M APY) occupy the $9-14M APY range, typically for younger backs with high workloads or upside.
• Value Contracts: Veterans like Conner or emerging starters like Hubbard earn $8-9.5M APY, reflecting durability but limited elite traits.
• Guarantees: Guaranteed money ranges from $12-26M, with higher guarantees for younger players or those with proven health.
Williams, at 25 years old (turning 26 in August 2025), fits the profile of a mid-tier back with high volume, solid receiving skills, and youth on his side. However, his 4.1 YPC in 2024 and fumbling issues may cap his APY below the Barkley/Taylor tier.
Peer Comparisons: Kyren Williams vs. Comparable Running Backs
To refine Williams’ contract projection, let’s compare him to three running backs with similar roles, production, and market positioning: Josh Jacobs, James Conner, and Chuba Hubbard. These players share Williams’ workhorse role and have signed recent contracts that align with his likely market.
Kyren Williams vs. Josh Jacobs
• Stats Comparison (2023-2024 Combined):
• Williams: 544 carries, 2,443 yards (4.5 YPC), 26 TDs; 66 receptions, 388 yards, 5 TDs
• Jacobs: 466 carries, 1,880 yards (4.0 YPC), 14 TDs; 72 receptions, 540 yards, 0 TDs
• Role: Both are primary backs with high snap shares (Williams: 85% avg.; Jacobs: ~70%). Jacobs has a slight edge in receiving volume but no receiving touchdowns.
• Age: Williams (25) is one year younger than Jacobs (26) at signing.
• Contract: Jacobs’ 4-year, $48M deal ($12M APY) includes only $12.5M guaranteed, reflecting market caution for backs with moderate efficiency.
• Analysis: Williams outperforms Jacobs in yards, touchdowns, and efficiency, suggesting he could command a similar or slightly higher APY, especially given his youth. However, Jacobs’ lower guarantee may align with Williams’ fumbling concerns.
Kyren Williams vs. James Conner
• Stats Comparison (2023-2024 Combined):
• Williams: See above
• Conner: 415 carries, 1,970 yards (4.7 YPC), 15 TDs; 54 receptions, 330 yards, 3 TDs
• Role: Conner is Arizona’s lead back but shares more carries than Williams (65-70% snap share). Williams has a higher touch volume.
• Age: Conner (29) is significantly older, impacting his contract value.
• Contract: Conner’s 3-year, $25.5M deal ($8.5M APY) is a value contract for a veteran with consistent production.
• Analysis: Williams’ superior volume, youth, and touchdown production position him for a higher APY than Conner, likely in the $10-12M range.
Kyren Williams vs. Chuba Hubbard
• Stats Comparison (2023-2024 Combined):
• Williams: See above
• Hubbard: 484 carries, 2,030 yards (4.2 YPC), 14 TDs; 73 receptions, 405 yards, 0 TDs
• Role: Hubbard is Carolina’s lead back (70% snap share), but Williams dominates touches more heavily.
• Age: Both are 25, making them direct peers in terms of market timing.
• Contract: Hubbard’s 4-year, $33.4M deal ($8.35M APY) reflects a cost-effective extension for a high-volume but less explosive back.
• Analysis: Williams’ higher touchdown totals and snap share suggest he deserves a higher APY than Hubbard, likely closer to $10-11M.
Key Takeaways from Comparisons
Williams’ production surpasses Conner and Hubbard in volume and scoring, and he matches or exceeds Jacobs in most metrics. His youth and role as the Rams’ offensive centerpiece position him for a contract in the $10-12M APY range, with guarantees likely between $15-20M, balancing his elite workload with concerns about efficiency and ball security.
Proposed Contract Value for Kyren Williams
Based on Williams’ statistical profile, peer comparisons, and the current running back market, a fair contract extension would balance his elite workload and youth with the NFL’s cautious approach to paying running backs. Here’s a proposed deal:
• Structure: 3 years, $33 million
• Average Per Year (APY): $11 million
• Guaranteed Money: $18 million
• Breakdown:
• Year 1 (2026): $8M base salary, $5M signing bonus (fully guaranteed)
• Year 2 (2027): $10M base salary ($5M guaranteed)
• Year 3 (2028): $10M base salary (non-guaranteed)
• Incentives: Up to $1M per year for 1,200+ rushing yards, 10+ TDs, or Pro Bowl selection
Rationale
• APY ($11M): This places Williams above Hubbard ($8.35M) and Conner ($8.5M) but below Barkley ($12.58M) and Taylor ($14M), reflecting his high volume and youth but acknowledging his 4.1 YPC and fumbling issues. It aligns closely with Jacobs’ $12M APY, adjusted for Williams’ slightly better production but similar market constraints.
• Guarantees ($18M): The $18M guaranteed is conservative compared to Barkley ($26M) or Taylor ($26.5M) but higher than Jacobs ($12.5M), balancing Williams’ importance to the Rams with the risk of injury or regression at a high-contact position.
• Term (3 years): A three-year deal keeps Williams with the Rams through his age-29 season, minimizing long-term risk while securing him through his prime. Running back contracts rarely exceed four years due to the position’s physical toll.
• Incentives: Performance-based bonuses reward Williams for maintaining his elite production, addressing concerns about his 2024 efficiency dip.
This structure aligns with projections from sources like Yahoo Sports, which suggested a 3-year, $39M deal with $20M guaranteed, though our proposal is slightly more conservative given market trends and Williams’ efficiency concerns. It also matches sentiments on X, where users estimate Williams’ value at $8-9.5M APY for a Hubbard/Conner-like deal or up to $12.5M for a higher-tier contract, with caution against exceeding $10M.
Factors Influencing Williams’ Contract
Several contextual factors will shape the final terms of Williams’ extension:
1. Rams’ Backfield Depth: The Rams drafted Blake Corum (2024, third round) and Jarquez Hunter (2025, fourth round), creating a potential committee approach. Some analysts, like The Athletic’s Jake Ciely, rank Williams’ job as the fifth-most vulnerable among starting backs due to this depth and his 2024 inefficiency. However, Williams’ 87% snap share in 2024 suggests he remains the clear RB1, reducing the urgency to overpay.
2. Negotiation Progress: Rams head coach Sean McVay has described extension talks as “really healthy,” with “positive progress” as of May 28, 2025. Recent reports (June 17, 2025) indicate the Rams are prioritizing Williams’ deal, with no intention of him holding out. This mutual goodwill may lead to a team-friendly structure.
3. Market Perception: The running back market remains suppressed, with few backs commanding top-tier deals. X posts reflect skepticism about paying Williams over $10M APY, citing the deflated RB market and the Rams’ ability to wait until free agency in 2026 to assess his value.
4. Team Context: The Rams are coming off a 2024 NFC West title and a playoff win, with a strong offensive line and Matthew Stafford’s leadership. Williams’ role in this high-powered offense enhances his value, but the team’s defensive struggles (ranked 24th by Pro Football Network) may limit salary cap flexibility.
Comparisons to Other Extension Candidates
Williams isn’t the only 2022 draft pick seeking an extension. Buffalo’s James Cook, another starting running back, is in a similar contract year. Let’s briefly compare their profiles to contextualize Williams’ value:
• Kyren Williams (2023-2024): 544 carries, 2,443 yards, 26 TDs; 66 receptions, 388 yards, 5 TDs; 85% snap share
• James Cook (2023-2024): 377 carries, 1,785 yards, 10 TDs; 80 receptions, 669 yards, 5 TDs; ~50% snap share
• Analysis: Williams dominates in volume and touchdowns, while Cook excels in receiving and efficiency (4.7 YPC vs. Williams’ 4.5). Cook’s lower snap share and touchdown totals suggest a lower APY, likely in the $8-9M range, reinforcing Williams’ $10-12M projection.
Potential Risks and Upside
Risks
• Efficiency Concerns: Williams’ 4.1 YPC in 2024 and eight fumbles over two seasons could deter the Rams from offering a top-tier deal.
• Injury History: While Williams played 16 games in 2024, he missed four games in 2023 due to injury, a concern for a high-volume back.
• Backfield Competition: Corum and Hunter could reduce Williams’ touches if the Rams shift to a committee, lowering his leverage.
• Market Suppression: The devaluation of running backs may cap Williams’ APY, as teams hesitate to invest heavily in the position.
Upside
• Youth and Durability: At 25, Williams is in his prime, and his 16-game season in 2024 shows improved durability.
• Touchdown Production: His 33 total touchdowns over two seasons rank among the league’s best, enhancing his value in a scoring-driven offense.
• Leadership and Character: Williams’ full participation in OTAs despite ongoing talks and praise from McVay and Stafford highlight his professionalism, potentially strengthening his negotiating position.
• Rams’ Commitment: The Rams’ history of rewarding homegrown talent (e.g., Matthew Stafford’s recent extension) and their reliance on Williams suggest a willingness to pay for his services.
Final Thoughts
Kyren Williams’ new contract should reflect his status as one of the NFL’s premier workhorse running backs, balanced against the realities of a suppressed running back market and his efficiency concerns. A 3-year, $33 million extension with an $11 million APY and $18 million guaranteed strikes a fair balance, positioning Williams above veterans like James Conner and Chuba Hubbard but below elite backs like Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor. This deal rewards his elite volume (third in touches in 2024), touchdown production (33 in two seasons), and youth (25 years old) while addressing risks like his 4.1 YPC and fumbling issues.
Comparisons to Josh Jacobs ($12M APY), Conner ($8.5M APY), and Hubbard ($8.35M APY) support this valuation, as does the Rams’ ongoing commitment to Williams amid “healthy” negotiations. With Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter waiting in the wings, the Rams must weigh Williams’ proven production against the potential for a committee approach, but his 87% snap share in 2024 and leadership qualities make him a cornerstone worth retaining.
As the Rams aim for another playoff run in 2025, securing Williams with a market-friendly extension will ensure their ground game remains a strength, potentially elevating them to Super Bowl contention. For Williams, a $33 million deal would cement his place among the NFL’s top-paid running backs, rewarding his breakout performance while setting the stage for a career-defining season in a contract year.
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