2025 NFC West Strength of Schedule Analysis

Now that the official schedule for the 2025 NFL has been released, let’s take a look at the strength of schedule (SOS) for the NFC West. The strength of schedule is a critical metric that evaluates the difficulty of a team’s opponents based on metrics from opponents’ 2024 win percentages or projected 2025 win totals from Vegas oddsmakers. I will dive into the 2025 strength of schedule for each NFC West team, ranked from easiest to hardest, using data from Sharp Football Analysis, NFL Research, and posts on X, while critically examining the factors that influence these rankings.

Strength of Schedule Overview

Strength of schedule is typically calculated using two primary methods:

Opponents’ 2024 Win Percentage: This method sums the 2024 win-loss records of a team’s 2025 opponents to determine the combined winning percentage. While straightforward, it’s less predictive due to roster changes, injuries, and other offseason developments.
Projected 2025 Win Totals: This approach, favored by analysts like Warren Sharp, uses Vegas oddsmakers’ projected win totals for 2025 opponents. It accounts for offseason moves, coaching changes, and player development, making it a more forward-looking metric.

Both methods have limitations. The 2024 win percentage doesn’t reflect current team strength, while projected win totals rely on oddsmakers’ assumptions, which can be inaccurate. However, historical data shows that teams with easier schedules based on projected win totals are more likely to finish with winning records (11 of 14 such teams in the last two years), while those with harder schedules often struggle (12 of 15 with losing records). With this in mind, let’s analyze the NFC West’s 2025 schedules.

1. San Francisco 49ers: Easiest Schedule (Ranked 32nd)

2024 Record: 6-11 (4th in NFC West)
2025 SOS (2024 Win Percentage): .415 (32nd) 2025 SOS (Projected Win Totals): Easiest in NFL Key Opponents:

Divisional: Rams (10-7), Seahawks (10-7), Cardinals (8-9)
NFC South: Buccaneers (10-7), Saints (5-12), Falcons (8-9), Panthers 5-12)
AFC South: Texans (10-7), Colts (8-9), Jaguars (4-13), Titans (3-14)
Other: Giants (3-14), Bears (5-12), Browns (3-14)

Analysis

The San Francisco 49ers have the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL for 2025, a significant advantage as they aim to rebound from a disappointing, injury-plagued 2024 season. Their .415 SOS based on 2024 win percentages is the lowest in the league, and Sharp Football Analysis confirms they face the easiest slate using projected 2025 win totals. This favorable schedule stems from their last-place finish in the NFC West, which grants them matchups against other fourth-place teams (Giants, Bears, Browns), all of whom struggled in 2024.

The 49ers’ divisional games against the Rams, Seahawks, and Cardinals are challenging, as the NFC West is projected to be competitive, with the Rams having a 10.5-win projection and the Seahawks and Cardinals around 8.3-8.5 wins. However, their non-divisional matchups are notably soft. The NFC South and AFC South, which the 49ers face in their rotational schedule, each had only one playoff team in 2024 (Buccaneers and Texans, respectively). Three NFC South teams (Saints, Falcons, Panthers) and two AFC South teams (Jaguars, Titans) have projected win totals of 7.5 or less, per Vegas oddsmakers. Additionally, the 49ers avoid the NFL’s top seven Super Bowl favorites (Ravens, Lions, Eagles, Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, Commanders), facing only four opponents with win totals above 8.5 and five with totals of 6.5 or less.

Key Stretch: The 49ers open the season against the Seahawks (Week 1), Saints (Week 2), Cardinals (Week 3), and Jaguars (Week 4). A 4-0 is plausible, setting a strong tone. The only two teams outside of the division that had a winning record for 2024 are the Bucs and Texans. Their schedule is by far the easiest in the entire NFL.

Outlook: With a healthy roster and the league’s easiest schedule, the 49ers are primed for a bounce-back season. Analysts project a 10-7 record, and their favorable matchups against weaker NFC and AFC South teams could propel them to the playoffs, provided they navigate their divisional games effectively.

2. Arizona Cardinals: 27th Easiest Schedule

2024 Record: 8-9 (3rd in NFC West)
2025 SOS (2024 Win Percentage): .457 (27th) 2025 SOS (Projected Win Totals): Relatively Easy Key Opponents:

Divisional: Rams (10-7), Seahawks (10-7), 49ers (6-11)
NFC South: Buccaneers (10-7), Saints (5-12), Falcons (8-9), Panthers (5-12)
AFC South: Texans (10-7), Colts (8-9), Jaguars 4-13), Titans (3-14)
Other: Cowboys (7-10), Packers (11-6), Bengals (9-8)

Analysis

The Arizona Cardinals benefit from a relatively easy schedule, ranked 27th based on 2024 win percentages. Their opponents’ combined 2024 record yields a .457 winning percentage, and their slate remains favorable when considering projected 2025 win totals. Like the 49ers, the Cardinals face the NFC South and AFC South, divisions with only four teams posting 10 or more wins in 2024 (Buccaneers, Texans, Rams, Seahawks). Their additional matchups against the Cowboys, Packers, and Bengals are tougher, but the Cardinals’ schedule is lighter than most, with only four opponents projected to win 9.5 or more games. For the Cardinals, over the past few years, they start fast and fade out. I don’t have reason to think this pattern changes.

The Cardinals’ divisional games are a mixed bag. The Rams, coming off a 10-7 season and an NFC West title, pose the biggest threat, while the Seahawks and 49ers are projected to be competitive but not dominant. Arizona’s 8-0 a record at Dallas’ AT&T Stadium gives them a psychological edge against the Cowboys, though this streak will be tested in 2025. Their early-season schedule includes winnable games against the Saints and Panthers, which could help them build momentum.

Key Stretch: The Cardinals face the 49ers (Week 3), Seahawks (Week 4), and Packers (Week 7) in a critical early stretch. A 2-1 or 3-0 record here could position them as playoff contenders. Two late-season road games against the Rams and Bengals (Weeks 16-17) are critical for their playoff hopes.

Outlook: With an improving defense and quarterback Kyler Murray’s playmaking ability, the Cardinals could capitalize on their easy schedule to push for a 9-8 or 10-7 record. Analysts see them as an NFC sleeper, especially if they start 4-2 or 5-1, as projected by ESPN.

3. Seattle Seahawks: 22nd Easiest Schedule

2024 Record: 10-7 (2nd in NFC West)
2025 SOS (2024 Win Percentage): .474 (22nd) 2025 SOS (Projected Win Totals): Top 5 Easiest Key Opponents:

Divisional: Rams (10-7), Cardinals (8-9), 49ers (6-11)
NFC South: Buccaneers (10-7), Saints (5-12), Falcons (8-9), Panthers (5-12)
AFC South: Texans (10-7), Colts (8-9), Jaguars (4-13), Titans (3-14)
Other: Commanders (12-5), Steelers (10-7), Vikings (14-3)

Analysis

The Seattle Seahawks have the 22nd-ranked strength of schedule based on 2024 win percentages (.474), and their slate is among the top five easiest when using projected 2025 win totals. Their schedule mirrors the 49ers and Cardinals in facing the NFC South and AFC South, which include several sub-500 teams from 2024. The Seahawks’ additional matchups against the Vikings, Commanders, and Steelers are a mixed bag, with the Steelers and Commanders being tough opponents, while the Vikings are projected to struggle.

Divisional games will be crucial, as the Rams’ high-powered offense and the 49ers’ potential resurgence make the NFC West a gauntlet. The Seahawks’ 8.3 projected win total suggests they’re a middle-of-the-pack team, but their schedule offers opportunities to outperform expectations or, with a new QB, completely fall flat. Their early-season matchup against the 49ers (Week 1) is a litmus test, as a road win could boost confidence.

Key Stretch: Weeks 2-4 pit the Seahawks against the Saints, Steelers, and Cardinals, all winnable games. A 3-0 stretch here could set them up for a strong first half. However, I look for the Seahawks to struggle out of the gate and finish last in the NFC West.

Outlook: The Seahawks’ schedule provides a path to a 7-10 or 6-11 record. They have lost both their starting WRs from 2024, have a new QB in Sam Darnold, and it is doubtful the signing of Cooper Kupp is going to make much of a difference. Their success hinges on how quickly Sam Darnold can get up to speed and if Kupp can reclaim his old form. Will we see Jalen Milroe in 2025?

4. Los Angeles Rams: 17th Easiest Schedule

2024 Record: 10-7 (1st in NFC West)
2025 SOS (2024 Win Percentage): .500 (17th) 2025 SOS (Projected Win Totals): 13th Most Difficult Key Opponents:

Divisional: Seahawks (10-7), Cardinals (8-9), 49ers (6-11)
NFC South: Buccaneers (10-7), Saints (5-12), Falcons (8-9), Panthers (5-12)
AFC South: Texans (10-7), Colts (8-9), Jaguars (4-13), Titans (3-14)
Other: Eagles (13-3), Lions (15-2), Ravens (12-5)

Analysis

The Los Angeles Rams face the toughest schedule in the NFC West, ranked 17th based on 2024 win percentages (.500) and 13th-most difficult using projected 2025 win totals. As the 2024 NFC West champions, they draw a first-place schedule, including daunting matchups against the Eagles (Super Bowl champions), Lions (NFC North champions), and Ravens (AFC North champions). These games, combined with a competitive NFC West, elevate their SOS.

Despite the tougher slate, the Rams benefit from facing the NFC South and AFC South, which include several weaker teams. Their 9.5 projected win total reflects confidence in their offense, led by Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua, and a defense bolstered by a strong draft. The Rams’ schedule sets up for a strong finish, with seven of their last 10 games projected to be winnable, per ESPN.

Key Stretch: The Rams need to avoid a slow start that has plagued them the last two seasons. Weeks 1-4 include games against the Eagles and Texans, followed by a home game in week 6 against the 49ers. Their final three games against the Seahawks, Falcons, and Cardinals are favorable.

Outlook: The Rams’ tougher schedule makes a repeat division title challenging, but their talent and late-season momentum could lead to an 11-6 or 10-7 record. Splitting their high-profile matchups and dominating divisional games will be key.

Comparative Analysis

Here’s how the NFC West teams stack up:

Team	SOS Rank (2024 Win %)	SOS Rank (Projected Wins)	Key Advantage	Key Challenge
49ers	32nd (.415)	1st (Easiest)	Weak NFC/AFC South opponents	Competitive divisional games
Cardinals	27th (.457)	Relatively Easy	Favorable non-divisional matchups	Tough games vs. Rams, Packers
Seahawks	22nd (.474)	Top 5 Easiest	Winnable early games	Bengals, packers matchups
Rams	17th (.500)	13th Most Difficult	Strong late-season schedule	Elite opponents (Eagles, Lions)

The 49ers have a clear edge with the easiest schedule, facing only four playoff teams from 2024. The Cardinals and Seahawks also benefit from lighter slates, with opportunities to rack up wins against sub-.500 teams. The Rams, however, face a gauntlet, with their first-place schedule pitting them against three of the NFL’s best teams.

Critical Factors and Caveats

Divisional Competition: The NFC West’s internal matchups are a significant factor. The Rams’ 10-7 record and the 49ers’ potential resurgence make divisional games critical. Each team plays six divisional games, which can swing SOS perceptions.
Offseason Changes: The 2024 win percentage metric doesn’t account for 2025 roster improvements. For example, the 49ers’ 6-11 record was injury-driven, and a healthy roster could make them a top contender, impacting opponents’ perceived difficulty.
Schedule Sequencing: The timing of games matters. The Rams’ tough mid-season stretch could derail momentum, while the 49ers’ early winnable games could build confidence.
Limitations of SOS: Historical data shows that SOS, based on prior records, has low predictive power (only 0.028% of wins explained by traditional SOS). Projected win totals are more reliable but still speculative.

Wrap Up

The 2025 NFC West strength of schedule rankings reveal a division with varied challenges. The San Francisco 49ers are poised for a strong rebound with the NFL’s easiest schedule, facing a slate filled with sub-.500 teams. The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks also benefit from favorable matchups, positioning them as potential wildcard contenders. The Los Angeles Rams, despite their division title, face the toughest road, with elite opponents testing their mettle.

While SOS provides a useful framework, it’s not destiny. The 49ers’ injuries in 2024 and the Rams’ late-season surge show that execution, health, and coaching can outweigh schedule difficulty. As the season unfolds, the NFC West’s competitive balance will ensure that divisional games, not just SOS, determine the playoff picture. For the Rams, it is critical to avoid a slow start and build some padding by leading the division for the final late-season push.