As the Los Angeles Rams navigate the 2025 offseason, one of the most pressing decisions facing head coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead is the future of running back Kyren Williams. The 24-year-old, entering the final year of his rookie contract in 2025, has emerged as a cornerstone of the Rams’ offense, racking up back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and earning a Pro Bowl nod in 2023. With 2,582 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns over three years, Williams has proven his value. Both McVay and Snead have publicly expressed interest in discussing a contract extension, and Williams himself has voiced a desire to stay in Los Angeles long-term. Yet, despite his production and popularity, there are compelling reasons why the Rams should not rush to extend his contract just yet. From financial prudence to performance concerns and roster strategy, delaying this decision could serve the team’s best interests.
The Running Back Market: A Cautionary Tale
The NFL’s running back market is notoriously volatile, and the Rams have firsthand experience with its pitfalls. In 2018, they signed Todd Gurley to a four-year, $57.5 million extension after his All-Pro season, only to release him two years later as injuries derailed his career. The deal left the Rams saddled with dead cap money and a lesson in the risks of investing heavily in the position. While Williams doesn’t carry Gurley’s injury history, the broader trend holds: running backs face intense physical wear, and their prime years are often short-lived.
Recent contracts reflect this caution. Top-tier backs like Christian McCaffrey ($19 million annually) and Jonathan Taylor ($14 million) command outlier deals, while the next tier—Josh Jacobs ($12 million), Joe Mixon ($9.875 million), David Montgomery ($9.125 million)—shows a steep drop-off. Williams, with his production, might demand a salary pushing $10-14 million per year, but the Rams must ask: Is he worth it? His 2024 efficiency dip (4.1 yards per carry from 5.0 in 2023) and five regular-season fumbles suggest he’s not an elite, game-changing back like McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley. Extending him now risks overpaying for a good—but not great—player at a position the league increasingly devalues.
Ball Security and Efficiency Concerns
Williams’ statistical output is impressive, but a closer look reveals cracks that warrant hesitation. His 1,299 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2024 came on 316 carries—third-most in the league—indicating volume-driven success rather than exceptional efficiency. His 4.1 yards per carry ranked him outside the top 20 among qualified backs, a stark contrast to his 5.0 mark in 2023. This regression raises questions about whether his production is sustainable or a product of Sean McVay’s scheme and a heavy workload.
More troubling is his ball security. Williams fumbled five times in the 2024 regular season and once in the playoffs, a red flag for a team that prides itself on discipline. While he’s a bruising, short-yardage threat (the Rams boasted an 80% power success rate in 2024), his lack of breakaway speed—only three rushing touchdowns of 10+ yards in his career compared to Jahmyr Gibbs’ 11—limits his explosiveness. Extending him now, before seeing if he can address these flaws in 2025, could lock the Rams into a deal with a player whose ceiling may already be reached.
Blake Corum: The Succession Plan
The Rams’ decision to draft Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft looms large. Corum, a Michigan standout who rushed for 27 touchdowns in his final college season, shares a similar profile to Williams—compact, physical, and adept in short-yardage situations. While he saw limited action as a rookie (backing up Williams), his presence suggests the Rams are preparing for life after their current starter. If Corum can replicate Williams’ output at a fraction of the cost—he’s under contract through 2027—why commit long-term money to Williams now?
This isn’t about doubting Williams’ impact but recognizing the team’s options. Letting him play out 2025 allows the Rams to evaluate Corum in a larger role, especially if Williams’ workload decreases or injuries arise. If Corum proves capable, the Rams could transition to him in 2026, either letting Williams walk or using the franchise tag (projected at around $12 million) as a stopgap. Extending Williams prematurely risks sidelining a cheaper, younger alternative that might offer comparable production.
Financial Flexibility and Roster Priorities
The Rams face a busy offseason with multiple roster needs. Matthew Stafford’s contract, set to run through 2026, will likely require another adjustment—his second in two years—as he decides how long he’ll play. Key free agents like tight end Tyler Higbee need attention, and the team must address linebacker and wide receiver depth after losing Ernest Jones. With Alaric Jackson already secured via a recent extension, the offensive line has some stability, but further investment might be needed to protect Stafford.
Williams’ current 2025 cap hit is $5.423 million, thanks to the Proven Performance Escalator, a manageable figure. An extension averaging $10-14 million annually would double or triple that, eating into the Rams’ projected $40 million in cap space (assuming the salary cap rises significantly). With a first-round pick in hand and a roster still recovering from past “all-in” moves, preserving flexibility to address premium positions—quarterback, pass rush, cornerback—makes more sense than locking in a running back early. The Gurley debacle taught the Rams that overcommitting to a non-premium position can hamstring long-term planning.
Strategic Leverage in Negotiations
Delaying an extension also gives the Rams leverage. Williams and his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, reportedly seek a deal exceeding $14 million per year, while the Rams’ valuation is lower, per The Athletic’s Jordan Rodrigue. Playing out 2025 lets the team assess his market value closer to free agency. If he excels, they can tag him or negotiate from a stronger position; if he falters, they avoid overpaying. Snead himself noted, “If it doesn’t happen this year, it doesn’t mean that Kyren is not going to be a part [of] next year,” signaling openness to waiting.
The running back market’s instability aids this approach. Recent deals for Chuba Hubbard ($8.3 million) and David Montgomery ($9.125 million) set a reasonable benchmark, but Williams’ camp might point to his stats to push for Jacobs-level money ($12 million). Letting him test his value in 2026 when he’d hit free agency at 26, could reveal whether his demands align with reality—especially if Corum emerges as a viable replacement.
The Emotional Factor vs. Business Reality
Williams is a fan favorite and locker-room leader, a St. Louis native who grew up rooting for the Rams. His desire to stay—“I don’t want to go play for anybody else besides the Los Angeles Rams”—tugs at heartstrings. But the NFL is a business, and the Rams have shown they’ll prioritize pragmatism over sentiment. Trading Ernest Jones last year, despite calling him “a Ram,” proves they won’t let emotion dictate moves. Williams’ cultural impact is real, but it shouldn’t override a calculated wait-and-see approach.
Final Thoughts
Kyren Williams has been a revelation for the Rams, transforming from a fifth-round pick into a Pro Bowl talent. His 2025 season could solidify his case for a lucrative extension, but rushing into one now carries too many risks. His efficiency drop, fumbling issues, and the presence of Blake Corum raise legitimate questions about his long-term value. Financially, the Rams need flexibility to address a roster in transition, and strategically, waiting preserves their options. The smart play is to let Williams prove himself in 2025—either cementing his worth or exposing his limits—before committing. In a league where running backs are increasingly disposable, the Rams should heed their own history and hold off on extending Williams just yet.
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